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A decade after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.

That represents the warning from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue

The team have studied the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.

"What troubles everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.

Insufficient Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.

"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or activists are willing to participate with even the essentials. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the book, neither author supports unity or the current situation. They writes two articles that aim for objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Arguments encompass national emblems, taxes, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.

Likelihood of Referendum

McBride considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has has valuable insights to acquire from the alternative positions."

Request for Broader Dialogue

Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."