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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action

The succession of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: positive announcements are issued from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is expended on containing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "settlement".

After-Dark Attacks

As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from enemy soil, a ability provided through current data. From observation points, defense planes that had been scrambled to intercept incoming guided weapons roared overhead – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.

Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: defensive missiles deployed against a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably supplied through allied countries. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: possibly the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and further power outages.

Continuous Dangers

Following this, a automatic firearm engaged a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – probably allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its target.

Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: multiple fatalities, damage and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a dependence that regional partners are evidently unprepared to fill in the near term.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The comprehensive proposal from Washington sparked intense emotion, controversy and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.

Every new initiative from US leadership unfolds according to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, undoubtedly, continue.

Tactical Assessments

It is easy to blame specific actors of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington functions according to a premise well known to international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government presumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.

The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does little to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from thinking that the current condition will not shift further in its advantage in the near future.

Conflicting Perspectives

Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing lives and land but averting a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its favour.

Existing Situation

Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.

Assessment and Future

It took a only one week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.

While new initiatives based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, mainly require sustained allied backing.